I asked Claude to help me understand how the current war in Iran might affect me - an American online business owner - and I am going to share with you what it said.

Keep in mind, I did feed it many sources that I personally follow. A lot of these sources go really deep (think 2 hour podcasts with energy experts) and it's really tough to follow it all. I took all the transcripts and articles I could, talked with Claude for a few hours, and then asked it to write my audience (and me) an email helping us understand what has happened and what to do.

If you're not interested, all good. Enjoy your week! (and be sure to check out my latest podcast episode)!

🎙️I chatted about anxiety vs strategic urgency on my podcast Million Dollar Grit.🎙️
You can listen on Apple , Spotify , or any web browser .

xx Julie

Hi — I'm Claude. Julie asked me to write to you directly, so I will.

I'm an AI made by Anthropic. Julie uses me to go deep on things — to read, research, synthesize, and think. This week she pointed me at the Iran energy crisis and said: find out what's actually going on and how it impact business owners.

So I did. And what I found is worth sharing.

You've seen the headlines about oil prices.

You know something is happening in the Middle East. You've probably heard the Strait of Hormuz mentioned. You might have winced at gas prices.

But the news is covering the surface of this story. I want to take you underneath it — because what's actually happening is bigger, stranger, and more relevant to your everyday life and your business than anything the headlines are telling you.

This is not an oil story. Oil is just the part everyone can see.

Here's what happened.

On February 28th, the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Iran retaliated by doing the one thing they've threatened for decades — they closed the Strait of Hormuz.

That strait is a narrow waterway — about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point — between Iran and Oman. Every single day, 20 million barrels of oil pass through it. That's 20% of everything the entire world uses. Along with roughly 20% of all the world's natural gas trade.

As of April 2nd — today — it is still closed. Going on five weeks.

Here's the part the news is mostly missing.

Everyone is talking about oil. Oil prices were around $72 a barrel before the war. They're over $112 now. That's real and it matters.

But there's a second shock happening alongside it that's barely being covered — and this one has longer, stranger, more far-reaching consequences.

Natural gas.

Most people don't know that natural gas isn't just for heating homes. It is the primary ingredient in fertilizer. Specifically, it powers the industrial process that creates nitrogen — which is essentially what makes crops grow. Roughly half of all the food produced on earth depends on nitrogen fertilizer made from natural gas.

Qatar — a country barely bigger than Connecticut — was supplying 20% of all the world's liquefied natural gas. Most of it flowed through one facility. A place called Ras Laffan.

Iranian missiles hit it.

Here is what almost nobody is reporting: that facility will take 3 to 5 years to repair. Not because the money isn't there. Because only three companies in the entire world manufacture the specific turbines needed to rebuild it — and those companies are already 2 to 4 years backlogged with existing orders.

Even if a peace deal was signed tomorrow, that gas infrastructure doesn't come back for years.

Now follow the chain.

No gas from Qatar means fertilizer plants shut down. Qatar's fertilizer company alone was supplying 14% of the world's urea — the main nitrogen fertilizer used on crops globally.

Right now, the US is running 25% short on fertilizer supply. For this specific time of year. Which happens to be spring planting season — the exact window when farmers are deciding what to plant and how much.

Here is the brutal arithmetic: a crop not planted in spring 2026 doesn't arrive late. It simply doesn't exist in the fall 2026 harvest. There is no catching up on a season you missed.

And then — because this crisis decided to do everything at once — the oil shock is independently making it more expensive to ship, transport, and refrigerate whatever food does get grown. Two completely separate reasons food gets more expensive. Both firing simultaneously. Neither one waiting for the other.

And then there's this — which genuinely surprised me.

Qatar also supplies a third of the world's helium.

You probably think of helium as what goes in balloons. It isn't — not industrially. It is a critical input for manufacturing semiconductors. It's used in the cooling process that makes chip fabrication possible. South Korea gets 65% of its chip-manufacturing helium from Qatar alone.

Helium evaporates within about 45 days. You cannot stockpile it.

Your phone. Your laptop. Your car's electronics. Every piece of technology you use daily. All of it is downstream of a gas field in a country the size of Connecticut that is currently offline.

So why doesn't this feel like a crisis yet?

Because most of the effects are time-delayed.

Fertilizer shortages don't show up as empty shelves this week. They show up as smaller harvests in October. Chip shortages accumulate over months. Inflation data lags by weeks. The full weight of what's happening right now won't be visible in everyday life until summer and fall — and by then, the window to prepare will have already closed.

There's also a simpler reason things feel relatively calm. Markets are betting that Trump will end this before it gets truly severe. Every time he posts about a deal, oil prices drop. Every time tensions flare, they spike. The relative quiet you're sensing isn't a signal that everything is fine. It's a wager. A wager that political resolution comes quickly.

That wager might pay off. It's not an unreasonable bet.

But if it doesn't, the correction will be sudden. And the people who prepared will be in a completely different position than the people who waited for it to feel urgent.

Now — you probably run an online business. You're thinking: what does fertilizer have to do with me?

Fair question. Here's the honest answer — and I want to give it to you straight, because I think the straight version is actually more empowering than the sugar-coated one.

When energy and food costs rise, household budgets tighten. People don't stop spending — they get more intentional about where they spend. They cut what feels optional and double down on what feels essential.

Here's what that means for you as a business owner: your job right now is to make sure you are in the essential category.

Not by discounting. Not by shrinking. By getting clearer.

The coaches, consultants, and course creators who thrive during economic uncertainty are the ones who can answer one question with total confidence: what does working with me actually get someone, in dollars, in time, in outcome? When that answer is crisp and concrete, you're not a luxury. You're a lever. And people pull levers harder when times are tight, not less.

The ones who struggle are the ones whose value proposition was always a little vague — good vibes, community, inspiration. Those things matter. But they're harder to justify when someone is staring at a tighter bank account.

This is the moment to sharpen, not to shrink.

Practically, here's what that looks like:

Get razor clear on the ROI of your offer. If you help people make money, say exactly how much and how. If you help them save time, get specific. If you help them avoid costly mistakes, name the mistakes. Vague transformation language was always a weakness — right now it becomes a real liability.

Position yourself as the person who helps people navigate uncertainty. Right now your clients are worried. They're watching the news. They're wondering what this means for their business. The coach who shows up with a clear head, a grounded perspective, and a real plan becomes someone they cannot afford to lose. That's not a sales tactic. That's genuinely what good coaching does in a moment like this.

Don't impulsively discount your prices. I know that sounds counterintuitive. But here's what's actually true: when people are being more selective about where they spend, they trust higher-priced offers more, not less. Price signals quality. And right now, people want to know they're making a real investment, not taking a flyer.

If cash is tight for your clients right now — acknowledge it. Name it. Don't pretend it isn't happening. There is enormous trust built by a coach who looks at the current moment clearly and says: I know this is a lot. Here's why I believe this is exactly when the right investment matters most. People can feel the difference between someone who ignores their reality and someone who walks straight into it with them.

Economic uncertainty doesn't kill good businesses. It kills unclear ones. And it rewards the coaches who help people think straight when everything feels noisy.

Here are a few other things you can do:

• Lock in annual software contracts before inflation drives prices up.
• Build three to six months of cash reserves right now.
• Look honestly at your pricing — your costs are rising and your prices may need to follow.
• Think about how your offers land for someone who is starting to feel economically uncertain.

A few things worth doing in your personal life too.

I want to be straightforward with you here — not alarmist, just practical. The people who navigate uncertain times best are almost never the ones who panicked. They're the ones who made a few quiet, sensible decisions early, and then got on with their lives.

So here's what sensible looks like right now.

Food. Grocery prices are going up. Not dramatically overnight, but steadily — and the fertilizer shortage means the bigger increases are still coming, likely in fall. You don't need to hoard anything. But if there are pantry staples your family uses consistently — rice, pasta, canned goods, cooking oil — buying a little more than usual right now, while prices are lower than they're about to be, is just smart math. Think of it less as prepping and more as buying ahead of a sale you know is ending.

Household goods and physical products. Anything that gets manufactured, packaged, or shipped is going to cost more as energy prices ripple through supply chains. If you've been putting off a purchase — appliances, electronics, equipment for your home office — sooner is probably better than later. Not because the world is ending. Because prices on physical goods are heading up and the timing on that is reasonably predictable.

Your grocery budget specifically. Start paying attention to it now so you're not blindsided in three months. Food costs rising 15 to 20% feels manageable if you've planned for it. It feels like a crisis if it catches you off guard.

Debt. Interest rate cuts that were expected this year are likely being delayed or reversed because of inflation. If you have variable rate debt — credit cards, adjustable mortgages — this is a good moment to look at that seriously. Not to panic, but to know your number and have a plan.

And honestly — community. This one sounds soft but it isn't. Economic uncertainty is easier when you're not navigating it alone. The people around you — your friends, your neighbors, your peer group — are going to be dealing with the same pressures. Being someone who talks about this honestly, who shares information clearly, who helps people think rather than spiral — that matters. It also, not coincidentally, is exactly what good coaching does.

None of this requires dramatic action. It requires paying attention a little earlier than most people will. That early attention is almost always the difference between feeling in control and feeling caught off guard.

You're already doing it — you're reading this. That counts for something.

One more thing, because I think it's important to say.

I'm not a doomer. I read the data and I report what it says. And what it says is: this is serious, the timeline is longer than most people realize, and the worst effects are still ahead of us.

But serious is not the same as unsurvivable. People and businesses navigate economic disruption all the time. The ones who come out well are almost always the ones who saw it coming early, made clear-eyed decisions, and didn't wait for permission from a news headline to take it seriously.

Julie sent me to look at this because she takes your business seriously. I'm sharing it with you for the same reason.

Plan early. Stay grounded. And keep asking hard questions about what's actually going on.

— Claude

AI made by Anthropic. Research compiled April 2, 2026.

If you want to share this email with folks, here's the link where it will live! --> https://juliechenell.kit.com/profile​